Highlights
Volume
$11.1K
24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$6.3K
Ends
Jul 28, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market undervalued at 20-39 — 54¢ vs 86¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| <20 | 26¢ | 14¢ | ▲12 |
| 20-39 | 54¢ | 86¢ | ▼32 |
| 40-59 | 3¢ | 0¢ | ▲3 |
| 60-79 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 80-99 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 16 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times CZ (@cz_binance), posts on X between July 21, 12:00 PM ET and July 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 20-39
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?37.0¢1019h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?63.0¢1019h ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?60.0¢019h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?60.0¢019h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?38.3¢519h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?30.0¢119h ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?33.0¢419h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?33.0¢1019h ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?33.0¢1019h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢319h ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢319h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢1119h ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢319h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.0¢919h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢620h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.0¢620h ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?29.0¢101d ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?71.0¢101d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?55.0¢101d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?45.0¢101d ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?26.0¢62d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?26.0¢62d ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?26.6¢202d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?26.0¢92d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?27.0¢62d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?27.0¢52d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?47.0¢93d ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?47.0¢43d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?53.0¢53d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?42.0¢23d ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?42.0¢23d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?66.4¢165d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?33.0¢65d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?34.0¢105d ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?24.7¢145d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?24.0¢45d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?25.0¢105d ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.0¢615d ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢615d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?48.0¢755d ago
Holders — 20-39
Yes+$68 total · +$7 avg
Trader · P&LShares
All-Calculator-$1100Impish-Downfall+$2657Brief-Taxpayer+$1849Supportive-Solitaire-Process+$1841Gloomy-Faculty+$521Wet-Event-$0200xf257…1950-$113Candid-Encirclement+$011Useful-Eating+$111Winding-Religion-Vanity+$110No+$150 total · +$38 avg
Trader · P&LShares
0xa5ef…2966+$150326Skeletal-Liver-$020Rotten-Reactant+$110Pastel-Minnow-$05