Highlights
Volume
$11.2K
24h Volume
$2.9K
Liquidity
$7.6K
Ends
Jul 31, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market overvalued at <20 — 35¢ vs 11¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| <20 | 35¢ | 11¢ | ▲23 |
| 20-39 | 66¢ | 85¢ | ▼19 |
| 40-59 | 3¢ | 4¢ | ▼1 |
| 60-79 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 80-99 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 100-119 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 8 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times CZ (@cz_binance), posts on X between July 24, 12:00 PM ET and July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 20-39
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?65.0¢501h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?65.0¢501h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?34.0¢501h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?66.0¢501h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?37.0¢11210h ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?37.0¢7510h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢3710h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?37.0¢11310h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢1310h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢10010h ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?36.0¢13611h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?36.0¢13611h ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?36.0¢2011h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?36.0¢2011h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?33.0¢2015h ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?33.0¢2015h ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?32.0¢5015h ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?68.0¢5015h ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?34.0¢1618h ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?66.0¢1618h ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢17718h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢17718h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?31.0¢3418h ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?31.0¢3418h ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?45.0¢1618h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?45.0¢1618h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?49.3¢47718h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?50.0¢6918h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?50.0¢5018h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?51.0¢7018h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?51.0¢5018h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?51.0¢16318h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?51.0¢7518h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?48.0¢4119h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?52.0¢4119h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?48.0¢6819h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?52.0¢6819h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?48.0¢919h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?52.0¢919h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?48.0¢2420h ago