Highlights
Volume
$3.9K
24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$32.2K
Ends
Aug 4, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market overvalued at 20-39 — 56¢ vs 52¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| <20 | 46¢ | 46¢ | ▼1 |
| 20-39 | 56¢ | 52¢ | ▲4 |
| 40-59 | 1¢ | 2¢ | ▼2 |
| 60-79 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 80-99 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 100-119 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 120-139 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 140-159 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 160-179 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 180-199 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 200+ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 0 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times CZ (@cz_binance), posts on X between July 28, 12:00 PM ET and August 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 20-39
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?45.0¢3038m ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?55.0¢3038m ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?45.0¢81h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?55.0¢81h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?45.0¢101h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?55.0¢101h ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?53.0¢199h ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?47.0¢199h ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?48.0¢21d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?48.0¢21d ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?48.0¢201d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?48.0¢201d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢101d ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢101d ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢111d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢111d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?51.0¢61d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢61d ago
SellNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢761d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢761d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?51.0¢101d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢101d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?50.4¢6471d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢201d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢461d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢201d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢1721d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢101d ago
SellYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?50.0¢801d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?50.0¢3001d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?50.0¢21d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?50.0¢21d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢21d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?51.0¢21d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?50.0¢91d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?50.0¢91d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢701d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?51.0¢701d ago
BuyYesWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?49.0¢201d ago
BuyNoWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?51.0¢201d ago
Holders — 20-39
Yes+$55 total · +$8 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Sore-Pitching+$47846Idealistic-Valance+$588Unconscious-Mandate+$019Impassioned-Monk+$111Treasured-Liner-Cheddar+$010Virtual-Cheddar+$08Narrow-Sideburns+$02