Highlights
Volume
$46.7K
24h Volume
$19.2K
Liquidity
$33.9K
Ends
Jul 28, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market undervalued at 140-159 — 40¢ vs 53¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60-79 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 80-99 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 100-119 | 1¢ | 1¢ | 0 |
| 120-139 | 21¢ | 23¢ | ▼2 |
| 140-159 | 40¢ | 53¢ | ▼14 |
| 160-179 | 24¢ | 21¢ | ▲4 |
| 180-199 | 9¢ | 2¢ | ▲7 |
| 200+ | 10¢ | 0¢ | ▲10 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of Truth Social posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 63 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between July 21, 12:00 PM ET and July 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 140-159
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?45.9¢101h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?39.0¢21h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?48.0¢81h ago
SellNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?42.0¢21h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?42.0¢21h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?26.0¢53h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?74.0¢53h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?44.0¢56h ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?44.0¢56h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?48.0¢388h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?52.0¢388h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?48.0¢388h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?52.0¢388h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?47.0¢338h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?53.0¢338h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?48.0¢1479h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?52.0¢1479h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?48.0¢699h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?52.0¢699h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?45.0¢1439h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?55.0¢1439h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?45.0¢99h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?55.0¢99h ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢1411h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢1411h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?91.0¢1013h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?9.0¢1013h ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.0¢813h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.0¢813h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?53.0¢714h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?47.0¢714h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?52.8¢2714h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?47.0¢2114h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?48.0¢614h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?55.6¢12814h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?44.0¢4414h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?44.0¢3114h ago
SellNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?55.0¢2214h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?45.0¢3114h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?45.9¢1714h ago