Highlights
Volume
$11.2K
24h Volume
$2.7K
Liquidity
$13.6K
Ends
Jul 31, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market undervalued at 100-119 — 8¢ vs 23¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-39 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 40-59 | 0¢ | 1¢ | 0 |
| 60-79 | 1¢ | 5¢ | ▼4 |
| 80-99 | 2¢ | 15¢ | ▼12 |
| 100-119 | 8¢ | 23¢ | ▼15 |
| 120-139 | 22¢ | 23¢ | ▼2 |
| 140-159 | 28¢ | 17¢ | ▲11 |
| 160-179 | 20¢ | 10¢ | ▲10 |
| 180-199 | 10¢ | 4¢ | ▲6 |
| 200+ | 7¢ | 3¢ | ▲4 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of Truth Social posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 5 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between July 24, 12:00 PM ET and July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 140-159
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?27.0¢59h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?73.0¢59h ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?26.0¢1013h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?26.0¢1013h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢1015h ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢1015h ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?15.0¢1901d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?15.0¢1691d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?15.0¢111d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?15.0¢101d ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?18.0¢101d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?18.0¢101d ago
SellNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?82.0¢72d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?82.0¢72d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?85.0¢52d ago
SellNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?85.0¢52d ago
SellNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?77.3¢802d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?49.0¢132d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?69.0¢122d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?85.0¢52d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?86.0¢502d ago
SellNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?86.0¢803d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?86.0¢803d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?14.0¢243d ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?14.0¢243d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?14.0¢1623d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?86.0¢1123d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?86.0¢503d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?14.0¢143d ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?14.0¢143d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?9.0¢114d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?91.0¢114d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?92.0¢55d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?8.0¢55d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?93.0¢15d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?7.0¢15d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?93.0¢115d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?7.0¢115d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?92.0¢105d ago
SellNoWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?92.0¢105d ago
Holders — 140-159
Yes+$119 total · +$20 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Sparse-Cookie+$101600Snappy-Rooster+$14131Canine-Frost+$211Vigorous-Compromise-Neighbour+$110Defenseless-Jot-Chopsticks$0100xf257…1950-$05No+$496 total · +$99 avg
Trader · P&LShares
0xa5ef…2966+$498673Known-Use-$650False-Relaxation+$729Secondary-Clogs-$210Metallic-Cup-$15