Highlights
Volume
$3.2K
24h Volume
$813
Liquidity
$10.4K
Ends
Aug 4, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market undervalued at 60-79 — 0¢ vs 8¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| <20 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 20-39 | 1¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 40-59 | 3¢ | 3¢ | ▲1 |
| 60-79 | 0¢ | 8¢ | ▼7 |
| 80-99 | 10¢ | 13¢ | ▼3 |
| 100-119 | 13¢ | 16¢ | ▼4 |
| 120-139 | 23¢ | 16¢ | ▲6 |
| 140-159 | 12¢ | 14¢ | ▼3 |
| 160-179 | 8¢ | 11¢ | ▼3 |
| 180-199 | 6¢ | 7¢ | ▼2 |
| 200+ | 14¢ | 11¢ | ▲3 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of Truth Social posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 0 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between July 28, 12:00 PM ET and August 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 120-139
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?23.0¢131h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?77.0¢61h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?77.0¢61h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢153h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢153h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢54h ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢54h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢54h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢54h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢54h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢54h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢54h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢54h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢175h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢175h ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢205h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢205h ago
SellNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢106h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢106h ago
SellNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢256h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢86h ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢176h ago
SellNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?77.0¢2922h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?77.0¢2922h ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢131d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢131d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢151d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢151d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢171d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢171d ago
BuyNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢201d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢201d ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢202d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢202d ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢202d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢72d ago
SellNoWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?78.0¢102d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢32d ago
SellYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢572d ago
BuyYesWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?22.0¢172d ago
Holders — 120-139
Yes+$3 total · +$0 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Defenseless-Jot-Chopsticks+$064Secondary-Clogs+$0290x9687…1b7c+$020Snappy-Rooster+$015Canine-Frost+$2120xf257…1950+$07Voluminous-Lava+$15Dry-Scraper-Full-$04No+$163 total · +$27 avg
Trader · P&LShares
0xa5ef…2966+$5368Evil-Row-$048Infatuated-Nun-$020False-Relaxation+$1109Ethical-Fishery+$06Tangible-Fuel-$05