Highlights
Price history
Distribution model
Gap Market undervalued at 1000+ — 18¢ vs 33¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 400-419 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 420-439 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 440-459 | 1¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 460-479 | 1¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 480-499 | 1¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 500-519 | 1¢ | 1¢ | 0 |
| 520-539 | 1¢ | 1¢ | ▲1 |
| 540-559 | 2¢ | 1¢ | ▲1 |
| 560-579 | 2¢ | 1¢ | ▲1 |
| 580-599 | 2¢ | 1¢ | ▲1 |
| 600-619 | 2¢ | 1¢ | ▲1 |
| 620-639 | 3¢ | 2¢ | ▲1 |
| 640-659 | 3¢ | 2¢ | ▲1 |
| 660-679 | 3¢ | 2¢ | ▲1 |
| 680-699 | 4¢ | 2¢ | ▲1 |
| 700-719 | 5¢ | 2¢ | ▲3 |
| 720-739 | 7¢ | 3¢ | ▲4 |
| 740-759 | 5¢ | 3¢ | ▲2 |
| 760-779 | 5¢ | 3¢ | ▲2 |
| 780-799 | 6¢ | 3¢ | ▲2 |
| 800-839 | 8¢ | 7¢ | 0 |
| 840-879 | 8¢ | 8¢ | 0 |
| 880-919 | 8¢ | 8¢ | 0 |
| 920-959 | 6¢ | 8¢ | ▼2 |
| 960-999 | 7¢ | 7¢ | 0 |
| 1000+ | 18¢ | 33¢ | ▼15 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of tweets — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 0 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of August 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.