Highlights
Volume
$2.9M
24h Volume
$503.1K
Liquidity
$591.9K
Ends
Jul 28, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market undervalued at 300-319 — 18¢ vs 62¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 220-239 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 240-259 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 260-279 | 30¢ | 0¢ | ▲29 |
| 280-299 | 50¢ | 36¢ | ▲14 |
| 300-319 | 18¢ | 62¢ | ▼44 |
| 320-339 | 3¢ | 2¢ | ▲2 |
| 340-359 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 360-379 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 380-399 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of tweets — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 254 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 21 12:00 PM ET to July 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 280-299
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.7¢152m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?50.3¢102m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?50.3¢52m ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.8¢44m ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.8¢44m ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.7¢115m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?50.3¢115m ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.4¢38m ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.4¢38m ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.8¢28m ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.8¢28m ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.6¢815m ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.6¢815m ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.6¢515m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?50.4¢515m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.1¢517m ago
SellNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.1¢517m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.2¢618m ago
SellNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.2¢618m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.4¢424m ago
SellNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.4¢424m ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.2¢425m ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.2¢425m ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.2¢325m ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.2¢325m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.6¢1928m ago
SellNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.6¢1828m ago
SellNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.1¢228m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.1¢430m ago
SellNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.1¢430m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.1¢333m ago
SellNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.1¢333m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.1¢434m ago
SellNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.1¢434m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢2034m ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.0¢234m ago
SellNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢1834m ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.4¢635m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?50.6¢635m ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.8¢4836m ago
Holders — 280-299
Yes+$30.8K total · +$3.1K avg
Trader · P&LShares
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