Highlights
Volume
$1.1M
24h Volume
$238.5K
Liquidity
$540.9K
Ends
Jul 31, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market undervalued at 320-339 — 2¢ vs 31¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120-139 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 140-159 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 160-179 | 3¢ | 0¢ | ▲3 |
| 180-199 | 10¢ | 0¢ | ▲10 |
| 200-219 | 19¢ | 0¢ | ▲18 |
| 220-239 | 20¢ | 0¢ | ▲19 |
| 240-259 | 18¢ | 0¢ | ▲17 |
| 260-279 | 13¢ | 3¢ | ▲10 |
| 280-299 | 8¢ | 15¢ | ▼7 |
| 300-319 | 5¢ | 33¢ | ▼29 |
| 320-339 | 2¢ | 31¢ | ▼29 |
| 340-359 | 1¢ | 14¢ | ▼12 |
| 360-379 | 1¢ | 3¢ | ▼3 |
| 380-399 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 400-419 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of tweets — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 123 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 24 12:00 PM ET to July 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 220-239
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢1,50033m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?80.0¢56333m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?80.0¢10033m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?80.0¢1033m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?80.0¢82733m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?81.0¢4345m ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?19.0¢4345m ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?81.0¢251h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?19.0¢251h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?81.0¢251h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?19.0¢111h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?19.0¢101h ago
SellNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?81.0¢41h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢51h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?80.0¢51h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?81.0¢62h ago
SellNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?81.0¢62h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢62h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?80.0¢62h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢3962h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?80.0¢3962h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢53h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?80.0¢53h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?80.0¢104h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢104h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢1374h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢304h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?80.0¢104h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?80.0¢974h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢54h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?80.0¢54h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢84h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢84h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?19.0¢6374h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?19.0¢5924h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?19.0¢304h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?19.0¢154h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢5334h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢664h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?20.0¢1004h ago