Elon Musk # tweets July 28 - August 4, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets July 28 - August 4, 2026?

26 options

Highlights

Volume
$179.6K
24h Volume
$45.1K
Liquidity
$754.3K
Ends
Aug 4, 2026

Price history

Distribution model

MarketBase-rate + pace projection

Gap Market undervalued at 160-179 — 12¢ vs 14¢ model fair

BracketMarketModel fairEdge
40-590¢0¢0
60-790¢0¢0
80-991¢0¢▲1
100-1192¢2¢▲1
120-1395¢5¢0
140-1599¢9¢▼1
160-17912¢14¢▼2
180-19914¢16¢▼2
200-21914¢16¢▼1
220-23913¢14¢▼1
240-25910¢10¢▼1
260-2797¢7¢0
280-2995¢4¢▲1
300-3193¢2¢▲1
320-3392¢1¢▲1
340-3591¢1¢0
360-3791¢0¢▲1
380-3991¢0¢▲1
400-4190¢0¢0
420-4390¢0¢0

How to read this

  • Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
  • Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of tweets — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 0 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.

About

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 28 12:00 PM ET to August 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Recent trades — 180-199

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢341h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢341h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?86.0¢56h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢56h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.2¢1056h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?85.0¢216h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?15.0¢36h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?86.0¢156h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?86.0¢676h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?13.0¢347h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?13.0¢347h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢347h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?86.0¢337h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢17h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢347h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢147h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢207h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?87.0¢27h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?13.0¢27h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢10713h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?86.0¢9313h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?86.0¢1413h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?87.0¢1617h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?13.0¢1617h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?13.0¢3219h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?13.0¢3219h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢4519h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?86.0¢4519h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢4119h ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?86.0¢4119h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢2019h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢1519h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢519h ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?15.0¢3322h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?15.0¢3322h ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢641d ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?14.0¢641d ago
BuyYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?15.0¢101d ago
SellYesWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?15.0¢101d ago
BuyNoWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?86.0¢991d ago

Holders — 180-199

Yes+$6.2K total · +$619 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Unaware-Listing+$3.2K30,000Big-Personality+$1.2K11,044Intentional-Monster+$7997,5000x2ef2…7f72+$5335,000Oddball-Deviance+$1231,152Assured-Porter+$1171,100Live-Position+$1071,001Zany-Pentagon+$86804Everlasting-Fit+$3511Best-Radish+$53500
No+$51.4K total · +$6.4K avg
Trader · P&LShares
0xa5ef…2966+$51.4K60,104Verifiable-Macaw-$0122Violet-Stepsister-$11000x90af…a42c-$099Moist-Mattress-Mathematics+$016Definite-Subject-$016Sharp-Mind-$06Quizzical-Contagion-$02