European military action against Iran by...?

European military action against Iran by...?

2 options

Highlights

Volume
$185.3K
24h Volume
$25.5K
Liquidity
$63.5K
Ends
Aug 31, 2026

Price history

About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the territory within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the relevant European country and Iran and credible reporting.

Recent trades — August 31

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?6.0¢1,0833h ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?94.0¢1,0833h ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?94.0¢1854h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?6.0¢1854h ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?6.0¢604h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?6.0¢604h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?6.0¢3554h ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?6.0¢2054h ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?94.0¢1504h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?5.0¢1484h ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?5.0¢324h ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?95.0¢1164h ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?4.0¢505h ago
SellNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?96.0¢455h ago
SellNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?96.0¢55h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?5.0¢845h ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?95.0¢845h ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?96.0¢858h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?4.0¢258h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?4.0¢608h ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?95.9¢6058h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?4.0¢4408h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?4.0¢1008h ago
SellNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?96.0¢58h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?5.0¢608h ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?94.1¢4538h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?5.0¢508h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?6.0¢1038h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?6.0¢3008h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?8.0¢25012h ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?8.0¢25012h ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?5.5¢1,95414h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?5.0¢94614h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?6.0¢83014h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?6.0¢15014h ago
SellNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?94.0¢2814h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?8.0¢1,25015h ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?8.0¢1,25015h ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?5.4¢2,64019h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?5.0¢1,09619h ago