Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 27?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 27?

11 options

Highlights

Volume
$301.0K
24h Volume
$243.1K
Liquidity
$91.8K
Ends
Jul 27, 2026

Price history

Distribution model

MarketEnsemble

Gap Market overvalued at 28°C 100¢ vs 24¢ model fair

BracketMarketModel fairEdge
26°C3
27°C16¢16
28°C100¢24¢76
29°C27¢27
30°C22¢22

How to read this

  • Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
  • Ensemble runs several weather models many times over with slightly different starting conditions. Each run (“member”) predicts a value; the shaded step is the (smoothed, model-weighted) share of members landing in each bracket — its height is the model’s fair price. A tight peak means the models agree; a wide spread means real uncertainty.

About

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Recent trades — 28°C

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢26m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢26m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢524m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢524m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢226m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢226m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢6026m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢6026m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.9¢527m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.9¢527m ago
SellNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?0.1¢10028m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.9¢10028m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?0.4¢1030m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢1030m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?0.4¢730m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢730m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢14133m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢14133m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢1645m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢645m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢545m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.6¢545m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.9¢5048m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.9¢5048m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.9¢1,02656m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.9¢23056m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.9¢556m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.9¢1056m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.9¢1056m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.9¢30556m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.9¢40656m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?0.1¢1556m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?0.1¢4556m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.8¢10157m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.8¢2157m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.8¢1657m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.8¢5057m ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.8¢1457m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?99.7¢9459m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?0.3¢5059m ago