Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28?

11 options

Highlights

Volume
$33.7K
24h Volume
$29.9K
Liquidity
$46.8K
Ends
Jul 28, 2026

Price history

Distribution model

MarketEnsemble

Gap Market overvalued at 29°C 38¢ vs 28¢ model fair

BracketMarketModel fairEdge
25°C0
26°C0
27°C3
28°C19¢17¢1
29°C38¢28¢9
30°C32¢28¢4
31°C12¢17¢6
32°C4
33°C1
34°C or higher0

How to read this

  • Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
  • Ensemble runs several weather models many times over with slightly different starting conditions. Each run (“member”) predicts a value; the shaded step is the (smoothed, model-weighted) share of members landing in each bracket — its height is the model’s fair price. A tight peak means the models agree; a wide spread means real uncertainty.

About

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Recent trades — 29°C

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?62.0¢341m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?38.0¢31m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?38.0¢51m ago
SellNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?62.0¢261m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?38.0¢2625m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?62.0¢2625m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?63.0¢229m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?37.0¢229m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?38.0¢1836m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?62.0¢1836m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?63.0¢339m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?37.0¢339m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?63.0¢842m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?37.0¢842m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?64.0¢21h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?36.0¢21h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?63.0¢51h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?37.0¢51h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?38.0¢51h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?62.0¢51h ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?36.0¢201h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?36.0¢201h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?63.0¢51h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?37.0¢51h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?63.0¢101h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?37.0¢101h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?63.0¢101h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?37.0¢101h ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?36.0¢51h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?36.0¢51h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?63.0¢201h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?37.0¢201h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?37.0¢51h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?63.0¢51h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?36.0¢201h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?64.0¢201h ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?37.0¢201h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?37.0¢201h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?62.0¢52h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?38.0¢52h ago