Highlights
Price history
Distribution model
Gap Market overvalued at 29°C — 33¢ vs 21¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25°C or below | 1¢ | 1¢ | 0 |
| 26°C | 2¢ | 7¢ | ▼5 |
| 27°C | 14¢ | 19¢ | ▼6 |
| 28°C | 34¢ | 28¢ | ▲5 |
| 29°C | 33¢ | 21¢ | ▲12 |
| 30°C | 16¢ | 15¢ | 0 |
| 31°C | 7¢ | 7¢ | 0 |
| 32°C | 4¢ | 2¢ | ▲2 |
| 33°C | 1¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 34°C | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 35°C or higher | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Ensemble runs several weather models many times over with slightly different starting conditions. Each run (“member”) predicts a value; the shaded step is the (smoothed, model-weighted) share of members landing in each bracket — its height is the model’s fair price. A tight peak means the models agree; a wide spread means real uncertainty.
About
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.