Highlights
Price history
Distribution model
Gap Market overvalued at 27°C — 47¢ vs 25¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22°C or below | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 23°C | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 24°C | 8¢ | 0¢ | ▲7 |
| 25°C | 9¢ | 2¢ | ▲7 |
| 26°C | 18¢ | 13¢ | ▲5 |
| 27°C | 47¢ | 25¢ | ▲21 |
| 28°C | 21¢ | 40¢ | ▼19 |
| 29°C | 12¢ | 19¢ | ▼7 |
| 30°C | 11¢ | 1¢ | ▲10 |
| 31°C | 4¢ | 0¢ | ▲4 |
| 32°C or higher | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Ensemble runs several weather models many times over with slightly different starting conditions. Each run (“member”) predicts a value; the shaded step is the (smoothed, model-weighted) share of members landing in each bracket — its height is the model’s fair price. A tight peak means the models agree; a wide spread means real uncertainty.
About
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.