Highest temperature in NYC on July 28?

Highest temperature in NYC on July 28?

11 options

Highlights

Volume
$7.4K
24h Volume
$7.4K
Liquidity
$32.5K
Ends
Jul 28, 2026

Price history

Distribution model

MarketEnsemble

Gap Market overvalued at 76-77°F 27¢ vs 16¢ model fair

BracketMarketModel fairEdge
69°F or below0
70-71°F0
72-73°F1
74-75°F17¢9
76-77°F27¢16¢11
78-79°F26¢22¢3
80-81°F20¢20¢0
82-83°F14¢7
84-85°F11¢10
86-87°F5
88°F or higher1

How to read this

  • Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
  • Ensemble runs several weather models many times over with slightly different starting conditions. Each run (“member”) predicts a value; the shaded step is the (smoothed, model-weighted) share of members landing in each bracket — its height is the model’s fair price. A tight peak means the models agree; a wide spread means real uncertainty.

About

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Recent trades — 76-77°F

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?73.2¢2720m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?26.0¢520m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?27.0¢820m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?27.0¢1420m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?28.0¢2021m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?72.0¢2021m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?28.0¢1424m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?72.0¢1424m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?28.0¢1625m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?72.0¢1625m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?73.0¢530m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?27.0¢530m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?74.0¢2731m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?26.0¢731m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?26.0¢2031m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?28.0¢6537m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?72.0¢6537m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?72.0¢641h ago
SellNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?72.0¢161h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?28.0¢201h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?28.0¢201h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?28.0¢81h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?72.0¢61h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?28.0¢61h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?72.0¢61h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?28.0¢61h ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?28.0¢191h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?28.0¢191h ago
SellNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?71.0¢31h ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?29.0¢31h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?72.0¢41h ago
SellNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?72.0¢41h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?71.0¢51h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?29.0¢51h ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?29.0¢201h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?29.0¢141h ago
SellNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?71.0¢51h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?29.0¢11h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?71.0¢191h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?29.0¢191h ago