Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 27?

Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 27?

11 options

Highlights

Volume
$11.1K
24h Volume
$9.3K
Liquidity
$24.4K
Ends
Jul 27, 2026

Price history

Distribution model

MarketEnsemble

Gap Market overvalued at 68-69°F 49¢ vs 11¢ model fair

BracketMarketModel fairEdge
61°F or below4
62-63°F13¢12
64-65°F14¢12
66-67°F17¢11¢5
68-69°F49¢11¢38
70-71°F26¢11¢14
72-73°F11¢6
74-75°F11¢9
76-77°F8
78-79°F3

How to read this

  • Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
  • Ensemble runs several weather models many times over with slightly different starting conditions. Each run (“member”) predicts a value; the shaded step is the (smoothed, model-weighted) share of members landing in each bracket — its height is the model’s fair price. A tight peak means the models agree; a wide spread means real uncertainty. The station has already reported 60.1°F today, so brackets entirely below that are ruled out (0%).

About

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Recent trades — 68-69°F

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?50.0¢238m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?50.0¢238m ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?50.0¢545m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?50.0¢545m ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?50.0¢61h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?50.0¢61h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?50.0¢121h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?50.0¢121h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?51.0¢21h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?49.0¢21h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?49.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?51.0¢52h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?49.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?51.0¢52h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?48.0¢252h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?52.0¢152h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?52.0¢102h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?48.0¢102h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?52.0¢102h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?48.0¢102h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?52.0¢102h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?48.0¢102h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?52.0¢102h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?48.0¢102h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?52.0¢82h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?52.0¢22h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?48.0¢102h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?52.0¢82h ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?48.0¢22h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?48.0¢102h ago
SellYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?48.0¢102h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?46.0¢113h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?54.0¢53h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?54.0¢63h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?54.0¢123h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?46.0¢123h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?48.0¢23h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?52.0¢23h ago
BuyNoWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?58.0¢33h ago
BuyYesWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 27?42.0¢33h ago