Highlights
Volume
$1.8K
24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$30.4K
Ends
Aug 3, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market overvalued at 0 — 46¢ vs 0¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46¢ | 0¢ | ▲46 |
| 1 | 32¢ | 58¢ | ▼27 |
| 2 | 12¢ | 30¢ | ▼18 |
| 3 | 3¢ | 9¢ | ▼6 |
| 4 | 2¢ | 2¢ | 0 |
| 5 | 2¢ | 0¢ | ▲2 |
| >5 | 1¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of M6.5+ earthquakes — a negative-binomial prior fit on 10 years of monthly counts — with the 1 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time counts as the fraction of the window already passed. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Recent trades — 0
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?46.0¢1729m ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?54.0¢229m ago
SellYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?46.0¢1529m ago
SellNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?54.0¢94h ago
SellYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?46.0¢94h ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?46.0¢505h ago
SellYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?46.0¢505h ago
SellYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?45.0¢206h ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?45.0¢206h ago
SellYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?45.0¢1046h ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?45.0¢746h ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?45.0¢206h ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?45.0¢106h ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?55.0¢211h ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?45.0¢211h ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?47.0¢211h ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?53.0¢211h ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?48.0¢10416h ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?52.0¢10416h ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?48.0¢1519h ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?52.0¢1519h ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?46.5¢2022h ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?53.0¢1022h ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?54.0¢1022h ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?47.0¢281d ago
SellYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?47.0¢281d ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?48.0¢1041d ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?52.0¢1041d ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?49.0¢201d ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?51.0¢201d ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?50.0¢51d ago
SellNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?50.0¢51d ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?48.0¢72d ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?52.0¢72d ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?48.0¢282d ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?52.0¢142d ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?52.0¢142d ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?44.0¢102d ago
BuyYesWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?56.0¢102d ago
BuyNoWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?43.0¢182d ago
Holders — 0
Yes-$9 total · -$1 avg
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