Highlights
Volume
$1.4M
24h Volume
$80
Liquidity
$25.0K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market overvalued at 14–16 — 48¢ vs 38¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 5–7 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 8–10 | 1¢ | 3¢ | ▼2 |
| 11–13 | 20¢ | 26¢ | ▼6 |
| 14–16 | 48¢ | 38¢ | ▲9 |
| 17–19 | 27¢ | 23¢ | ▲4 |
| 20+ | 8¢ | 10¢ | ▼2 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of M7+ earthquakes — a negative-binomial prior fit on 10 years of monthly counts — with the 9 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time counts as the fraction of the window already passed. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Recent trades — 14–16
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?51.0¢54d ago
BuyNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?49.0¢54d ago
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?52.0¢154d ago
BuyNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?48.0¢154d ago
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?50.0¢54d ago
BuyNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?50.0¢54d ago
BuyNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?58.0¢26d ago
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?42.0¢26d ago
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?50.0¢207d ago
BuyNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?50.0¢207d ago
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?56.0¢108d ago
BuyNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?44.0¢108d ago
SellNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?52.0¢2310d ago
BuyNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?52.0¢2310d ago
BuyNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?55.0¢510d ago
SellNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?55.0¢510d ago
SellNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?55.0¢710d ago
BuyNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?55.0¢710d ago
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?46.0¢4310d ago
SellYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?47.0¢810d ago
BuyNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?54.0¢3010d ago
SellYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?45.0¢610d ago
BuyNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?55.0¢610d ago
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?45.0¢610d ago
SellNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?54.0¢612d ago
SellYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?47.0¢012d ago
SellYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?46.0¢612d ago
SellYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?32.0¢812d ago
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?32.0¢812d ago
SellYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?35.0¢514d ago
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?35.0¢514d ago
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?48.0¢414d ago
SellYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?48.0¢414d ago
SellNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?49.0¢715d ago
SellYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?51.0¢715d ago
SellYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?46.0¢1916d ago
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?46.0¢1016d ago
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?46.0¢916d ago
BuyYesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?46.0¢2818d ago
BuyNoWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?54.0¢2318d ago