Highlights
Volume
$15.1K
24h Volume
$4.6K
Liquidity
$7.8K
Ends
Jul 28, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market undervalued at <5 — 90¢ vs 100¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 90¢ | 100¢ | ▼10 |
| 5-9 | 9¢ | 0¢ | ▲9 |
| 10-14 | 4¢ | 0¢ | ▲4 |
| 15-19 | 5¢ | 0¢ | ▲5 |
| 20-24 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 25-29 | 2¢ | 0¢ | ▲2 |
| 30-34 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 35-39 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 1 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 21, 12:00 PM ET and July 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — <5
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?13.8¢611h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?86.0¢501h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?87.0¢111h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?13.0¢501h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?87.0¢501h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?12.5¢1271h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?86.0¢111h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?87.0¢501h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?12.0¢601h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?11.0¢61h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?93.0¢302h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?7.0¢302h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?93.0¢462h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?7.0¢302h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?7.0¢62h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?7.0¢102h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?93.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?7.0¢52h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?90.3¢1153h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?9.0¢303h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?10.0¢203h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?10.0¢103h ago
SellYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?90.0¢553h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?11.0¢326h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?11.0¢326h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?89.0¢456h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?11.0¢456h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?89.0¢586h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?11.0¢586h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?89.0¢586h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?11.0¢586h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?89.0¢586h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?11.0¢586h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?89.0¢516h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?11.0¢516h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?13.0¢116h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?87.0¢116h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?13.0¢116h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?87.0¢116h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?14.0¢556h ago