Highlights
Volume
$9.0K
24h Volume
$763
Liquidity
$19.0K
Ends
Jul 31, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market undervalued at <5 — 63¢ vs 96¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 63¢ | 96¢ | ▼33 |
| 5-9 | 21¢ | 4¢ | ▲16 |
| 10-14 | 6¢ | 0¢ | ▲6 |
| 15-19 | 5¢ | 0¢ | ▲5 |
| 20-24 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 25-29 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 30-34 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 35-39 | 8¢ | 0¢ | ▲8 |
| 40-44 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 45-49 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 50-54 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 55-59 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 60+ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 0 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 24, 12:00 PM ET and July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — <5
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.1¢362h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢312h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?37.0¢52h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?35.0¢202h ago
SellYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?65.0¢202h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢202h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?37.0¢202h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢35h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢35h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢207h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢207h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢207h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢207h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢109h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢109h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢569h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢109h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢269h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢209h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢209h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢209h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢569h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢369h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢209h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢59h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?38.0¢59h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?37.0¢2714h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?37.0¢2714h ago
SellYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?61.0¢514h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?39.0¢514h ago
SellYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?61.0¢1716h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?61.0¢1716h ago
SellYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?61.0¢1517h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?39.0¢1517h ago
SellYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?60.0¢517h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?60.0¢517h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢517h ago
SellYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢517h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?39.0¢2517h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?39.0¢2517h ago