Highlights
Volume
$1.2K
24h Volume
$302
Liquidity
$15.4K
Ends
Aug 4, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market overvalued at 15-19 — 7¢ vs 3¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 57¢ | 58¢ | 0 |
| 5-9 | 27¢ | 30¢ | ▼3 |
| 10-14 | 11¢ | 9¢ | ▲1 |
| 15-19 | 7¢ | 3¢ | ▲4 |
| 20-24 | 3¢ | 1¢ | ▲2 |
| 25-29 | 2¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 30-34 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 35-39 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 40-44 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 45-49 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 50-54 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 55-59 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 60+ | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 0 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 28, 12:00 PM ET and August 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — <5
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢83h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢83h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?42.0¢504h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?42.0¢504h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?58.0¢504h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?42.0¢504h ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?42.0¢410h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?42.0¢410h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?58.0¢2318h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?42.0¢2318h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?58.0¢2319h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?42.0¢2319h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?58.0¢321h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?42.0¢321h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?44.0¢1522h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?56.0¢622h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?56.0¢922h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?44.0¢6622h ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?56.0¢6622h ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?44.0¢51d ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?56.0¢51d ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?58.0¢171d ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?42.0¢171d ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?46.0¢181d ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?54.0¢181d ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?44.0¢501d ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?56.0¢501d ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?60.0¢101d ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?60.0¢101d ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?58.0¢121d ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?58.0¢121d ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢221d ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢101d ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢51d ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢71d ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢161d ago
BuyNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢161d ago
SellYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?38.0¢321d ago
BuyYesWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?38.0¢161d ago
SellNoWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?62.0¢161d ago