Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28?

11 options

Highlights

Volume
$15.2K
24h Volume
$10.1K
Liquidity
$38.5K
Ends
Jul 28, 2026

Price history

Distribution model

MarketEnsemble

Gap Market undervalued at 27°C vs 35¢ model fair

BracketMarketModel fairEdge
21°C or below0
22°C0
23°C1
24°C5
25°C45¢13¢32
26°C55¢46¢9
27°C35¢35
28°C5

How to read this

  • Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
  • Ensemble runs several weather models many times over with slightly different starting conditions. Each run (“member”) predicts a value; the shaded step is the (smoothed, model-weighted) share of members landing in each bracket — its height is the model’s fair price. A tight peak means the models agree; a wide spread means real uncertainty.

About

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Recent trades — 26°C

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?44.8¢1958m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?42.0¢78m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?43.0¢58m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?44.0¢1008m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?46.0¢308m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?46.0¢58m ago
SellYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?54.0¢388m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?47.0¢108m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?55.0¢20021m ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?45.0¢20021m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?62.0¢923m ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?62.0¢923m ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?52.4¢5724m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?43.0¢1324m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?49.0¢524m ago
SellYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?51.0¢3024m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?49.0¢924m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?64.0¢10025m ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?36.0¢10025m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?64.0¢527m ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?64.0¢527m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?62.0¢5329m ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?38.0¢5329m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?61.0¢1831m ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?61.0¢1831m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?61.0¢2732m ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?61.0¢2732m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?59.0¢5734m ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?59.0¢2634m ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?41.0¢534m ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?41.0¢534m ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?41.0¢2134m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?59.0¢3836m ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?59.0¢2836m ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?41.0¢536m ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?41.0¢536m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?58.0¢3438m ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?58.0¢2438m ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?42.0¢538m ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?42.0¢538m ago