Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 29?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 29?

11 options

Highlights

Volume
$6.6K
24h Volume
$6.7K
Liquidity
$38.2K
Ends
Jul 29, 2026

Price history

Distribution model

MarketEnsemble

Gap Market undervalued at 27°C vs 31¢ model fair

BracketMarketModel fairEdge
21°C or below0
22°C0
23°C3
24°C10¢7
25°C35¢18¢17
26°C47¢42¢5
27°C31¢22
28°C5
29°C0
30°C0

How to read this

  • Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
  • Ensemble runs several weather models many times over with slightly different starting conditions. Each run (“member”) predicts a value; the shaded step is the (smoothed, model-weighted) share of members landing in each bracket — its height is the model’s fair price. A tight peak means the models agree; a wide spread means real uncertainty.

About

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Recent trades — 26°C

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?52.0¢82h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?52.0¢82h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢22h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢22h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢292h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢292h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢62h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢62h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢52h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢102h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢102h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢122h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢122h ago
SellYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?49.0¢302h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢92h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢212h ago
SellYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?49.0¢103h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢93h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢13h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?48.0¢04h ago
SellYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?52.0¢04h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢25h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢25h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢25h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢25h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢95h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢95h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢25h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢25h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?50.0¢165h ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?50.0¢55h ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?50.0¢115h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢55h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢55h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?44.0¢205h ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?56.0¢205h ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?48.6¢1575h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢205h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?51.0¢265h ago