Lowest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Lowest temperature in NYC on July 27?

11 options

Highlights

Volume
$4.7K
24h Volume
$4.7K
Liquidity
$31.2K
Ends
Jul 27, 2026

Price history

Distribution model

MarketEnsemble

Gap Market undervalued at 68-69°F 10¢ vs 23¢ model fair

BracketMarketModel fairEdge
63°F or below0
64-65°F1
66-67°F4
68-69°F10¢23¢13
70-71°F42¢39¢3
72-73°F43¢30¢13
74-75°F0
76-77°F0

How to read this

  • Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
  • Ensemble runs several weather models many times over with slightly different starting conditions. Each run (“member”) predicts a value; the shaded step is the (smoothed, model-weighted) share of members landing in each bracket — its height is the model’s fair price. A tight peak means the models agree; a wide spread means real uncertainty. The station has already reported 73.0°F today, so brackets entirely above that are ruled out (0%).

About

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Recent trades — 72-73°F

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?54.2¢8326m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?45.0¢826m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?45.0¢1026m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?46.0¢526m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?46.0¢6026m ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?61.0¢1647m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?39.0¢447m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?39.0¢547m ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?39.0¢847m ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?39.0¢102h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?61.0¢102h ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?59.0¢252h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?40.0¢02h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?41.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?41.0¢102h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?41.0¢102h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?58.0¢53h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?58.0¢53h ago
SellNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?46.0¢75h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?46.0¢75h ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?53.0¢66h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?47.0¢66h ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?45.4¢487h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?54.0¢57h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?54.0¢107h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?54.0¢107h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?54.0¢107h ago
SellYesWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?45.0¢67h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?57.0¢77h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?67.0¢67h ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?33.0¢67h ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?36.0¢2812h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?64.0¢812h ago
SellYesWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?36.0¢2012h ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?35.0¢2915h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?65.0¢915h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?65.0¢2015h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?64.0¢1216h ago
BuyYesWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?36.0¢1216h ago
BuyNoWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?64.0¢616h ago