Highlights
Price history
Distribution model
Gap Market overvalued at 25°C — 45¢ vs 24¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20°C or below | 1¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 21°C | 2¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 22°C | 2¢ | 4¢ | ▼2 |
| 23°C | 2¢ | 20¢ | ▼18 |
| 24°C | 38¢ | 28¢ | ▲10 |
| 25°C | 45¢ | 24¢ | ▲21 |
| 26°C | 10¢ | 16¢ | ▼7 |
| 27°C | 2¢ | 7¢ | ▼5 |
| 28°C | 0¢ | 2¢ | ▼1 |
| 29°C | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Ensemble runs several weather models many times over with slightly different starting conditions. Each run (“member”) predicts a value; the shaded step is the (smoothed, model-weighted) share of members landing in each bracket — its height is the model’s fair price. A tight peak means the models agree; a wide spread means real uncertainty.
About
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.