Highlights
Volume
$6.4K
24h Volume
$742
Liquidity
$3.7K
Ends
Jul 28, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market undervalued at 80-99 — 78¢ vs 86¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-39 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 40-59 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 60-79 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 80-99 | 78¢ | 86¢ | ▼9 |
| 100-119 | 19¢ | 14¢ | ▲5 |
| 120-139 | 5¢ | 0¢ | ▲5 |
| 140-159 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 160-179 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 180-199 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 200+ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 77 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between July 21, 12:00 PM ET and July 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 80-99
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?76.0¢3314m ago
SellYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?76.0¢2414m ago
SellYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?76.0¢914m ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?75.0¢902h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?25.0¢902h ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?75.0¢112h ago
SellYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?75.0¢112h ago
SellNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?28.3¢496h ago
SellYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?72.0¢406h ago
SellYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?70.0¢96h ago
SellNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?63.0¢7715h ago
SellYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?37.0¢915h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?63.0¢6815h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?54.0¢771d ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?46.0¢771d ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?36.0¢1001d ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?64.0¢361d ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?64.0¢501d ago
SellYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?36.0¢141d ago
SellYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?36.0¢521d ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?36.0¢521d ago
SellYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?38.0¢1321d ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?38.0¢501d ago
SellNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?62.0¢821d ago
SellYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?41.0¢732d ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?41.0¢732d ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?59.0¢822d ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?41.0¢92d ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?41.0¢732d ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?63.0¢32d ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?37.0¢32d ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?61.6¢492d ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?38.0¢292d ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?39.0¢202d ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?57.0¢202d ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?43.0¢202d ago
SellNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?56.0¢202d ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?56.0¢202d ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?40.4¢552d ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?59.0¢202d ago
Holders — 80-99
Yes+$134 total · +$17 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Another-Proposition+$31340xf257…1950+$41107Infatuated-Nun+$2050Wet-Event+$1440Frayed-Hostel+$2130Direct-Chainstay+$2626Striking-Concentrate+$710Brief-Taxpayer+$35