Highlights
Volume
$2.7K
24h Volume
$1.7K
Liquidity
$13.8K
Ends
Jul 31, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market overvalued at 40-59 — 14¢ vs 0¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| <20 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 20-39 | 1¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 40-59 | 14¢ | 0¢ | ▲14 |
| 60-79 | 12¢ | 6¢ | ▲5 |
| 80-99 | 41¢ | 52¢ | ▼11 |
| 100-119 | 28¢ | 38¢ | ▼9 |
| 120-139 | 19¢ | 4¢ | ▲14 |
| 140-159 | 14¢ | 0¢ | ▲13 |
| 160-179 | 13¢ | 0¢ | ▲13 |
| 180-199 | 3¢ | 0¢ | ▲3 |
| 200+ | 1¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 29 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between July 24, 12:00 PM ET and July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 80-99
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?58.0¢209h ago
SellYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?42.0¢209h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?61.0¢4710h ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?39.0¢4710h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?61.0¢3610h ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?39.0¢3610h ago
SellNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢4712h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢4712h ago
SellNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢1112h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢1112h ago
SellNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢2012h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢2012h ago
SellNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢2012h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?62.0¢2012h ago
SellNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢1112h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢1112h ago
SellNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢2012h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢2012h ago
SellNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢2012h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢2012h ago
SellNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.4¢2012h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢1112h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?64.0¢912h ago
BuyYesWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?36.0¢11812h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?64.0¢3812h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?64.0¢2012h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?64.0¢2012h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?64.0¢2012h ago
BuyNoWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?64.0¢2012h ago
Holders — 80-99
No+$62 total · +$21 avg
Trader · P&LShares
0xa5ef…2966+$64108Rapid-Precipitation-$151Direct-Chainstay-$147