Highlights
Volume
$26.8K
24h Volume
$5.6K
Liquidity
$6.8K
Ends
Jul 28, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market undervalued at 200+ — 81¢ vs 84¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120-139 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 140-159 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 160-179 | 2¢ | 0¢ | ▲2 |
| 180-199 | 18¢ | 16¢ | ▲1 |
| 200+ | 81¢ | 84¢ | ▼3 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 165 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between July 21, 12:00 PM ET and July 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 200+
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?19.8¢5628m ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?80.0¢4528m ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?81.0¢528m ago
SellNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?19.0¢628m ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?82.0¢63h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?18.0¢63h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?81.0¢274h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?81.0¢274h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?81.0¢75h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?19.0¢75h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?80.0¢1606h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?80.0¢276h ago
SellNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?20.0¢506h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?80.0¢836h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?19.0¢537h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?81.0¢537h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?82.0¢508h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?18.0¢508h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?82.8¢1339h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?83.0¢539h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?17.0¢509h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?18.0¢249h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?82.0¢69h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?80.0¢419h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?80.0¢419h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?19.0¢219h ago
SellNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?19.0¢219h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?81.0¢99h ago
SellNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?19.0¢99h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?18.0¢3110h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?82.0¢3110h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?82.0¢810h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?82.0¢810h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?83.0¢12310h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?17.0¢12310h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?84.2¢21410h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?86.0¢1810h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?16.0¢4010h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?16.0¢15610h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?17.0¢4010h ago