Highlights
Volume
$8.3K
24h Volume
$805
Liquidity
$5.4K
Ends
Jul 31, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market overvalued at 200+ — 53¢ vs 29¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60-79 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 80-99 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 100-119 | 1¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 120-139 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 140-159 | 7¢ | 3¢ | ▲4 |
| 160-179 | 11¢ | 24¢ | ▼13 |
| 180-199 | 38¢ | 44¢ | ▼7 |
| 200+ | 53¢ | 29¢ | ▲24 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 51 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between July 24, 12:00 PM ET and July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 200+
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?52.0¢786m ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?52.0¢786m ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?47.0¢58h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?53.0¢58h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?49.0¢59h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?51.0¢59h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?51.0¢59h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?51.0¢59h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?45.0¢911h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?55.0¢911h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?41.5¢1017h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?58.0¢517h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?41.0¢517h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?31.0¢220h ago
SellNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?69.0¢220h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?46.0¢620h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?46.0¢620h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?39.0¢71d ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?61.0¢71d ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?13.0¢81d ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?13.0¢81d ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?47.0¢182d ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?47.0¢182d ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?63.0¢22d ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?37.0¢22d ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?55.0¢1002d ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?55.0¢1002d ago
SellNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?44.0¢123d ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?56.0¢123d ago
SellNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?66.0¢13d ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?34.0¢13d ago
SellNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?66.0¢33d ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?34.0¢33d ago
SellNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?44.3¢213d ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?56.0¢143d ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?55.0¢63d ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?48.0¢213d ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?52.0¢213d ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?44.0¢203d ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?56.0¢203d ago
Holders — 200+
Yes-$8 total · -$1 avg
Trader · P&LShares
0xf257…1950-$8406Sore-Pitching-$1118Idealistic-Policeman+$178Rapid-Precipitation-$014Lanky-Wrench+$17Virtual-Cheddar-$02