Highlights
Volume
$4.7K
24h Volume
$3.2K
Liquidity
$18.1K
Ends
Aug 4, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market overvalued at 180-199 — 40¢ vs 24¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| <20 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 20-39 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 40-59 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 60-79 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 80-99 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 100-119 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 120-139 | 0¢ | 1¢ | 0 |
| 140-159 | 0¢ | 4¢ | ▼4 |
| 160-179 | 3¢ | 13¢ | ▼11 |
| 180-199 | 40¢ | 24¢ | ▲16 |
| 200+ | 59¢ | 58¢ | ▲1 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 0 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between July 28, 12:00 PM ET and August 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 200+
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?42.0¢53h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?58.0¢53h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?42.0¢123h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?58.0¢123h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?58.0¢53h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?58.0¢53h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢97h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢97h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢147h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢147h ago
SellNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?40.0¢27h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?60.0¢27h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?60.0¢810h ago
SellYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?60.0¢810h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢917h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢817h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢117h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢3019h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢3019h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢2019h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢2019h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢4119h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢4119h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢1121h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢1121h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢5021h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢5021h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢1021h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢1021h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢521h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢521h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢1921h ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢1921h ago
SellNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?38.0¢522h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?38.0¢522h ago
BuyNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?41.0¢51d ago
BuyYesWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?59.0¢51d ago
SellNoWill White House post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?38.0¢21d ago
Holders — 200+
Yes-$1 total · -$0 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Idealistic-Policeman+$0138Meager-Fondue-$183Limp-Wink-Anywhere-$08Evil-Row$08No+$94 total · +$31 avg
Trader · P&LShares
0xa5ef…2966+$94230Ethical-Fishery$05Bewitched-Auditorium+$02