Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

4 options

Highlights

Volume
$111.7K
24h Volume
$7.6K
Liquidity
$38.9K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026

Price history

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Recent trades — #10

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?93.0¢5017h ago
SellNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?7.0¢5017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?93.0¢5017h ago
SellNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?7.0¢5017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?93.1¢5017h ago
SellNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?7.0¢317h ago
SellNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?6.9¢3717h ago
SellNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?6.9¢1017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?93.1¢5017h ago
SellNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?6.9¢5017h ago
SellNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?5.0¢43017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?95.1¢13317h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?95.0¢20017h ago
BuyNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?5.0¢6017h ago
BuyNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?5.0¢3717h ago
SellNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?4.9¢6717h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?95.1¢6717h ago
SellNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?6.7¢47717h ago
BuyNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?5.8¢6717h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?93.2¢20017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?93.2¢21017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?94.2¢45017h ago
SellNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?5.8¢45017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?93.0¢5017h ago
SellNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?7.0¢5017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?93.1¢20017h ago
SellNoWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?7.0¢5017h ago
BuyYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?93.1¢15017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?93.1¢5017h ago
BuyYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?93.1¢5017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?94.1¢5017h ago
BuyYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?94.1¢5017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?94.1¢15017h ago
BuyYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?94.1¢15017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?95.0¢10017h ago
BuyYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?95.0¢10017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?94.9¢10017h ago
BuyYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?94.9¢10017h ago
SellYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?94.5¢10017h ago
BuyYesWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?94.2¢5017h ago