Highlights
Volume
$15.9K
24h Volume
$2.1K
Liquidity
$6.4K
Ends
Jul 28, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market undervalued at 80-99 — 46¢ vs 88¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-39 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 40-59 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 60-79 | 49¢ | 12¢ | ▲37 |
| 80-99 | 46¢ | 88¢ | ▼42 |
| 100-119 | 6¢ | 0¢ | ▲6 |
| 120-139 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 140-159 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 160-179 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 180-199 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 200+ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 66 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Volodymyr Zelenskyy (@ZelenskyyUa), posts on X between July 21, 12:00 PM ET and July 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 60-79
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?48.0¢2036m ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?52.0¢2036m ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?53.0¢171h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?53.0¢141h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?53.0¢31h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?53.0¢132h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?53.0¢132h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?57.0¢234h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?57.0¢234h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?50.0¢184h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?50.0¢184h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.0¢104h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢104h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.2¢635h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢405h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢105h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?52.0¢135h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?53.0¢195h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?47.0¢195h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?47.0¢335h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?53.0¢245h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?53.0¢95h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢05h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢155h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢95h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.0¢65h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?51.0¢475h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.0¢475h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?50.0¢395h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?50.0¢395h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.0¢255h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?49.0¢255h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?43.0¢256h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?57.0¢256h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?43.0¢266h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?57.0¢266h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?54.0¢436h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?54.0¢436h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?57.0¢226h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?57.0¢226h ago