Highlights
Volume
$3.4K
24h Volume
$243
Liquidity
$4.7K
Ends
Jul 31, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market undervalued at 80-99 — 30¢ vs 67¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| <20 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 20-39 | 2¢ | 0¢ | ▲2 |
| 40-59 | 7¢ | 0¢ | ▲7 |
| 60-79 | 42¢ | 29¢ | ▲13 |
| 80-99 | 30¢ | 67¢ | ▼37 |
| 100-119 | 8¢ | 4¢ | ▲3 |
| 120-139 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 140-159 | 1¢ | 0¢ | ▲1 |
| 160-179 | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 180-199 | 2¢ | 0¢ | ▲2 |
| 200+ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 34 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Volodymyr Zelenskyy (@ZelenskyyUa), posts on X between July 24, 12:00 PM ET and July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 60-79
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?55.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?55.0¢52h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?55.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?55.0¢52h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?55.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?55.0¢52h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?55.0¢52h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?45.0¢52h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?58.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?58.0¢52h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?58.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?58.0¢52h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?40.0¢203h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?40.0¢203h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?58.0¢63h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?42.0¢63h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?56.0¢54h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?56.0¢54h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?43.0¢56h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?57.0¢56h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?43.0¢56h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?57.0¢56h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?43.0¢56h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?57.0¢56h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?41.0¢1110h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?59.0¢1110h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?58.0¢612h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?42.0¢112h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?58.0¢512h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?57.0¢612h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?57.0¢412h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?57.0¢212h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?56.0¢61d ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?56.0¢61d ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?56.0¢51d ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?44.0¢51d ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?57.0¢61d ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?57.0¢61d ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?43.0¢51d ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?57.0¢51d ago
Holders — 60-79
Yes+$18 total · +$2 avg
Trader · P&LShares
0xf257…1950+$797Infatuated-Nun+$232Personal-Neighbourhood+$120Evil-Row+$514Lean-Indicator+$310Blind-Leaf-$050x9687…1b7c-$05Harmonious-View+$05Wild-Muscatel-$01No+$81 total · +$16 avg
Trader · P&LShares
0xa5ef…2966+$83141Old-Fashioned-Handholding-Viscose-$119Secondary-Clogs-$014Known-Use+$010Bewitched-Auditorium-$04