Highlights
Volume
$2.4K
24h Volume
$855
Liquidity
$4.2K
Ends
Aug 4, 2026
Price history
Distribution model
MarketBase-rate + pace projection
Gap Market undervalued at 80-99 — 32¢ vs 52¢ model fair
| Bracket | Market | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| <20 | 2¢ | 0¢ | ▲2 |
| 20-39 | 2¢ | 0¢ | ▲2 |
| 40-59 | 11¢ | 2¢ | ▲9 |
| 60-79 | 33¢ | 31¢ | ▲1 |
| 80-99 | 32¢ | 52¢ | ▼20 |
| 100-119 | 8¢ | 14¢ | ▼6 |
| 120-139 | 3¢ | 1¢ | ▲2 |
| 140-159 | 10¢ | 0¢ | ▲10 |
| 160-179 | 16¢ | 0¢ | ▲16 |
| 180-199 | 1¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| 200+ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
How to read this
- Market is the live price of each bracket on Polymarket, read as the crowd's implied probability that the outcome lands in that band. Bars deepen the further they sit from the model.
- Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of posts — a negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows — with the 0 counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
About
This market will resolve according to the number of times Volodymyr Zelenskyy (@ZelenskyyUa), posts on X between July 28, 12:00 PM ET and August 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent trades — 60-79
SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?29.0¢232h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?29.0¢232h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?29.0¢82h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?29.0¢82h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?71.0¢52h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?29.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?71.0¢52h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?71.0¢52h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?65.0¢72h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?35.0¢62h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?35.0¢12h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?65.0¢212h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?35.0¢212h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?36.0¢59h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?36.0¢49h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?64.0¢19h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?36.0¢59h ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?64.0¢59h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?36.0¢59h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?36.0¢59h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?64.0¢59h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?36.0¢59h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?64.0¢59h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?36.0¢59h ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?37.0¢311h ago
SellYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?37.0¢311h ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?64.0¢101d ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?36.0¢101d ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?64.0¢71d ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?36.0¢71d ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?64.0¢161d ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?36.0¢161d ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?64.0¢201d ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?36.0¢201d ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?64.0¢321d ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?36.0¢321d ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?64.0¢51d ago
BuyYesWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?36.0¢51d ago
SellNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?62.0¢51d ago
BuyNoWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?62.0¢51d ago
Holders — 60-79
Yes-$2 total · -$0 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Giving-Mobster-$257Evil-Row-$2490xf257…1950+$123Tangible-Fuel-$07Impish-Downfall+$16Honest-Thesis-$03No+$47 total · +$12 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Attentive-Crewman+$2680xa5ef…2966+$4566Yearly-Digestive+$050xf528…7e5b-$05