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Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Outcomes

Yes22.5%
No77.5%

Market details

Outcomes2
EndsDec 31, 2026
ResolverUMA0x6507…f2A7
Source—
Category
ScienceWeatherclimateearthquake

Highlights

Volume
$334.7K
24h Volume
$83
Liquidity
$1.9K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026

Price history

22.5¢

About

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Recent trades

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?23.0¢651h ago
BuyNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?77.0¢481h ago
SellYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?23.0¢171h ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?23.0¢51h ago
SellYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?23.0¢51h ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?23.0¢1317h ago
SellYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?23.0¢1317h ago
BuyNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?78.0¢131d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?22.0¢51d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?22.0¢81d ago
SellYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?22.0¢331d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?22.0¢271d ago
SellNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?78.0¢61d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?77.0¢331d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?23.0¢331d ago
SellNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?76.0¢12d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?76.0¢12d ago
SellNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?76.0¢252d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?76.0¢252d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?77.0¢72d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?23.0¢72d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?24.0¢43d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?76.0¢43d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?78.0¢13d ago
SellNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?78.0¢13d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?77.0¢193d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?23.0¢193d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?25.0¢43d ago
SellYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?25.0¢43d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?76.0¢354d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?24.0¢354d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?25.4¢64d ago
SellYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?26.0¢24d ago
SellYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?25.0¢44d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?25.0¢45d ago
SellYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?25.0¢45d ago
SellNoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?75.0¢275d ago
SellYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?25.0¢275d ago
SellYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?23.0¢165d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?23.0¢165d ago

Holders

Yes-$428 total · -$43 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Harmful-Prevention-$35668Warm-Love-$77591Hopeful-Celeriac-$83586Happy-Parchment-$48490Dual-Surfboard-$42340Capital-Eviction-$39312Trifling-Contention-$40269Unfit-Chow-$21200Jam-Packed-Peace-$23135Frightened-Glimpse-$19120
No+$493 total · +$49 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Impartial-Sailboat+$1681,306Weird-Freedom+$72600Imperturbable-Spelt+$68480Trained-Gauntlet+$29260Stained-Cynic+$71258Pleasing-Excellence+$38242Beautiful-Netball+$22166Pleased-Cart+$16166Mundane-Score+$2163Unfit-Hardboard+$7157
PriceSizeTotal
36.0¢3513
37.0¢3513
38.0¢13652
39.0¢3514
40.0¢3514
41.0¢4016
42.0¢4820
54.0¢53
55.0¢6334
97.0¢2424
98.0¢2,1002,058
99.0¢1,1821,171
Spread 98.0¢Mid 50.0¢
1.0¢9,999100
2.0¢1082
3.0¢9,999300
4.0¢161
11.0¢10912
16.0¢20032
17.0¢600102
20.0¢517103
21.0¢42689
22.0¢4510