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Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Outcomes

Yes11.5%
No88.5%

Market details

Outcomes2
EndsDec 31, 2026
ResolverUMA0x6507…f2A7
Source—
Category
ScienceWeatherHurricanesClimate & Science

Highlights

Volume
$138.0K
24h Volume
$108
Liquidity
$1.6K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026

Price history

11.5¢

About

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Recent trades

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?87.0¢504h ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?87.0¢504h ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?89.6¢504h ago
BuyYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?10.0¢304h ago
SellNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?89.0¢204h ago
BuyYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?13.0¢814h ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?87.0¢814h ago
BuyYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?14.3¢334d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?85.0¢104d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?86.0¢204d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?86.0¢34d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?14.0¢334d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?86.0¢274d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?86.0¢64d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?13.7¢344d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?86.0¢244d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?87.0¢104d ago
SellYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?10.3¢368d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?10.0¢268d ago
SellNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?89.0¢68d ago
SellNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?89.0¢48d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?13.0¢3612d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?87.0¢612d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?87.0¢3012d ago
SellYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?12.0¢3112d ago
SellNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?89.0¢612d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?11.0¢512d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?11.0¢512d ago
SellNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?87.0¢1512d ago
SellYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?13.0¢1512d ago
SellNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?87.0¢1512d ago
SellYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?14.0¢1614d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?14.0¢414d ago
SellNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?86.0¢1214d ago
SellNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?86.0¢1514d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?86.0¢1514d ago
BuyNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?86.0¢5514d ago
BuyYesWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?14.0¢3014d ago
SellNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?86.0¢914d ago
SellNoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?86.0¢1514d ago

Holders

Yes-$121 total · -$12 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Crushing-Canopy-$41949Odd-Fraud-$44660Gorgeous-Provision-$2417Sleepy-Heron-$4317Jam-Packed-Peace-$10200Artistic-Tire+$7200Unhappy-Fortune-$13144Insidious-Oasis-$5133All-Peasant-Drug-$8129Chilly-Ravioli-$2124
No+$103 total · +$10 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Buoyant-Ice+$391,876Virtuous-Exhibit+$28980Rare-Average+$18500Burdensome-Armadillo-$5343Worse-Scenario+$24256Decisive-Dependency-$3224Sniveling-Manacle+$1200Mealy-Hanger+$2163Straight-Apprehension-$1100Immense-Businessman-$1100
PriceSizeTotal
20.0¢513103
21.0¢102
22.0¢5111
24.0¢4912
48.0¢84
49.0¢6833
57.0¢9051
89.0¢900801
94.0¢109
95.0¢2019
98.0¢2,1072,065
99.0¢77
Spread 98.0¢Mid 50.0¢
1.0¢10,099101
2.0¢190
4.0¢151
5.0¢1658
6.0¢121
8.0¢80064
9.0¢37934
10.0¢899