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US strike on Mexico by December 31?

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

Outcomes

Yes13.5%
No86.5%

Market details

Outcomes2
EndsDec 31, 2026
ResolverUMA0x6507…f2A7
Source—
Category
PoliticsTrumpVenezuelaGeopolitics

Highlights

Volume
$702.5K
24h Volume
$461
Liquidity
$18.3K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026

Price history

13.5¢

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Recent trades

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?87.0¢12h ago
SellNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?87.0¢12h ago
BuyNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?87.0¢1011h ago
SellNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?87.0¢1011h ago
BuyNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?87.0¢1014h ago
SellNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?87.0¢1014h ago
SellNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?87.0¢44014h ago
SellYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?13.0¢814h ago
SellYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?13.0¢43314h ago
BuyYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?12.0¢82d ago
BuyNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?88.0¢82d ago
SellNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?88.0¢63d ago
BuyNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?88.0¢63d ago
SellNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?88.0¢143d ago
BuyNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?88.0¢143d ago
SellNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?87.0¢45d ago
SellYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?13.0¢45d ago
SellYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?11.0¢1225d ago
BuyYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?11.0¢1225d ago
SellNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?87.0¢16d ago
SellYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?13.0¢16d ago
SellNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?87.0¢37d ago
SellYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?13.0¢37d ago
SellNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?87.0¢47d ago
SellYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?13.0¢47d ago
SellNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?87.7¢4097d ago
SellYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?13.0¢557d ago
SellYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?13.0¢507d ago
SellYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?12.0¢907d ago
SellYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?12.0¢147d ago
SellYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?12.0¢507d ago
BuyNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?88.0¢1507d ago
BuyNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?89.0¢209d ago
BuyYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?11.0¢209d ago
SellNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?88.0¢510d ago
BuyNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?88.0¢510d ago
BuyNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?89.0¢110d ago
BuyYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?11.0¢110d ago
BuyYesUS strike on Mexico by December 31?12.0¢1710d ago
BuyNoUS strike on Mexico by December 31?88.0¢1710d ago

Holders

Yes-$5.6K total · -$557 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Husky-Pepperoni-$2.3K8,911Worse-Scenario+$336,946Occasional-Tilt-$7645,756Awesome-Combination-$7175,047Assured-Gale-$7584,8750x0a22…69ba-$6564,851Dearest-Agenda-$184,103Threadbare-Signal-$3993,071Minty-Luxury+$602,960Thrifty-Whip-$942,769
No+$8.9K total · +$886 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Odd-Okra+$2.7K26,245Determined-Percentage+$1.2K10,784Nimble-Pit+$1.6K9,189Respectful-Ship+$5274,804Rude-Ale+$8074,216Bleak-Full+$9804,000Whimsical-Terminal+$5443,467Usable-Porcelain+$4103,199Married-Tenement-$472,257Tiny-Tumbler+$602,000
PriceSizeTotal
88.0¢109
89.0¢109
90.0¢1,022919
91.0¢11,21810,208
92.0¢109
93.0¢109
94.0¢139131
95.0¢150143
96.0¢23,01022,090
97.0¢1817
98.0¢110108
99.0¢1,000990
Spread 98.0¢Mid 50.0¢
1.0¢24,440244
2.0¢7,295146
3.0¢4,756143
4.0¢2,44798
5.0¢7,844392
6.0¢66740
7.0¢1,580111
8.0¢4,416353
9.0¢1,477133
10.0¢3,396340
11.0¢1,151127
12.0¢597