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Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

Outcomes

Yes11.9%
No88.1%

Market details

Outcomes2
EndsDec 31, 2026
ResolverUMA0x6507…f2A7
Source—
Category
Natural DisastersScienceEarthquakesWeather

Highlights

Volume
$14.5K
24h Volume
$60
Liquidity
$1.4K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026

Price history

12.6¢

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601). For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Recent trades

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?81.8¢6014h ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?81.7¢1014h ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?81.8¢2414h ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?81.8¢2014h ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?81.9¢614h ago
SellYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?13.8¢33d ago
BuyYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?13.8¢33d ago
BuyYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?13.9¢13d ago
BuyYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?17.0¢65d ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?83.0¢65d ago
SellNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?82.9¢155d ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?82.9¢105d ago
SellYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?17.0¢55d ago
SellYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?13.9¢46d ago
BuyYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?13.9¢46d ago
BuyYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?14.0¢106d ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?86.0¢106d ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?86.0¢56d ago
BuyYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?14.0¢56d ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?85.8¢156d ago
BuyYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?14.1¢56d ago
BuyYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?14.2¢56d ago
BuyYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?14.3¢56d ago
SellYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?6.1¢46d ago
BuyYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?6.1¢46d ago
SellNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?90.0¢17d ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?90.0¢17d ago
SellNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?90.0¢17d ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?90.0¢17d ago
SellNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?90.0¢17d ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?90.0¢17d ago
SellNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?90.0¢17d ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?90.0¢17d ago
SellNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?90.0¢17d ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?90.0¢17d ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?94.9¢17d ago
BuyYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?5.1¢17d ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?94.9¢17d ago
BuyYesMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?5.1¢17d ago
BuyNoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?94.9¢17d ago

Holders

Yes-$331 total · -$33 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Slushy-Gamebird-$1091,8150x455c…e548-$1951,354Discrete-Flung-$31492Second-Domain+$10100Low-Mythology-$174Second-Hand-Direction-$267Whimsical-Makeup+$150Used-Medicine-$240Essential-Diarist+$438Diligent-Element-$637
No+$210 total · +$21 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Crushing-Spree+$481,106Virtuous-Exhibit+$35947Stained-Cynic+$73900Active-Broad+$33800Buoyant-Ice+$12311Belated-Glue+$578Rowdy-Tenement+$228Stable-Windage-$120Poor-Update-Opera+$120Proud-Oats+$215
PriceSizeTotal
89.9¢55
90.0¢3834
95.0¢2019
97.7¢1212
97.8¢2,0071,963
98.0¢2,0001,960
99.4¢1212
99.5¢996991
99.6¢750747
99.7¢10,0079,977
99.8¢1,000998
99.9¢2,0172,015
Spread 99.8¢Mid 50.0¢
0.1¢74,25074
0.2¢13,92228
0.3¢5,73217
0.4¢6,53726
0.5¢3,36117
0.6¢1,71110
0.7¢1,2389
0.8¢9618
0.9¢7507
1.0¢7508
1.1¢3644
1.2¢110