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Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?

Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?

Outcomes

Anthropic + OpenAI 65.5%
Microsoft34.5%

Market details

Outcomes2
EndsJan 1, 2027
ResolverUMA0x6507…f2A7
Source—
Category
FinancePrivatesDario Amodeichatgpt

Highlights

Volume
$5.9K
24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4.4K
Ends
Jan 1, 2027

Price history

65.5¢

About

This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Recent trades

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyAnthropic + OpenAI Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?64.0¢122d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?36.0¢122d ago
SellMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?40.0¢503d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?40.0¢503d ago
SellAnthropic + OpenAI Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?28.0¢27d ago
BuyAnthropic + OpenAI Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?28.0¢27d ago
SellAnthropic + OpenAI Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?32.0¢29d ago
BuyAnthropic + OpenAI Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?32.0¢29d ago
BuyAnthropic + OpenAI Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?52.0¢29d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?48.0¢29d ago
SellMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?54.0¢5010d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?54.0¢5010d ago
SellMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?44.0¢112d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?44.0¢112d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?43.0¢712d ago
SellMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?43.0¢712d ago
SellMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?53.0¢5012d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?53.0¢5012d ago
SellMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?42.4¢4212d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?42.0¢412d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?42.0¢2012d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?43.0¢1812d ago
BuyAnthropic + OpenAI Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?57.0¢212d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?43.0¢212d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?47.0¢2512d ago
SellMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?47.0¢2512d ago
SellMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?31.9¢5012d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?25.0¢512d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?26.0¢2512d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?41.0¢2012d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?43.0¢2012d ago
BuyAnthropic + OpenAI Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?57.0¢2012d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?42.0¢8312d ago
SellMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?42.0¢8312d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?41.0¢4612d ago
SellMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?41.0¢4612d ago
SellMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?25.0¢1513d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?25.0¢1513d ago
SellMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?26.0¢2013d ago
BuyMicrosoftAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?26.0¢2013d ago

Holders

Anthropic + OpenAI -$35 total · -$4 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Fabulous-Online-$1053,000Second-Hand-Dissemination+$7169Celebrated-Improvement+$36100Buttery-Envy+$1568Villainous-Ivory+$850Valid-Enforcement-Voter+$012Friendly-Legislation+$430xb294…a90c+$02Whirlwind-Rubbish+$02Brave-Hatchet+$02
Microsoft-$5 total · -$1 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Ready-Jungle+$582,717Feminine-Decrease+$7200Remote-Demur-$7115Hideous-Racer-$36100Evil-Row-$384Quizzical-Hire-$1852Interesting-Aspic-$350Belated-Glue-$3340x2712…eb71-$024Daring-Liquor+$022
PriceSizeTotal
83.0¢972807
85.0¢1,037881
86.0¢1,4481,246
87.0¢66
89.0¢2,3042,051
93.0¢4,0293,747
94.0¢326306
95.0¢3,3093,144
96.0¢10,89110,455
97.0¢15,58415,116
98.0¢24,99724,497
99.0¢52,81352,284
Spread 98.0¢Mid 50.0¢
1.0¢9,48195
2.0¢4,26285
3.0¢2,27468
4.0¢1,39156
5.0¢96148
6.0¢2,741164
14.0¢31244
15.0¢25238
16.0¢20032
17.0¢20034
18.0¢20036
19.0¢20038