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Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?

Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?

Outcomes

Yes48.5%
No51.5%

Market details

Outcomes2
EndsDec 31, 2026
ResolverUMA0x6507…f2A7
Source—
Category
GeopoliticsUkraine Map

Highlights

Volume
$10.5K
24h Volume
$5
Liquidity
$351
Ends
Dec 31, 2026

Price history

48.5¢

About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Recent trades

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?52.0¢520h ago
SellNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?52.0¢520h ago
BuyYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?49.0¢181d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?51.0¢181d ago
SellNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?46.0¢121d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?46.0¢121d ago
BuyYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?55.0¢301d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?45.0¢301d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?50.2¢63d ago
BuyYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?49.0¢13d ago
BuyYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?50.0¢53d ago
SellYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?49.0¢174d ago
SellNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?51.0¢174d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?54.0¢185d ago
BuyYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?46.0¢05d ago
BuyYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?46.0¢175d ago
SellNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?46.0¢146d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?46.0¢146d ago
SellNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?53.0¢506d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?52.0¢146d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?53.0¢126d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?53.0¢216d ago
SellYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?43.0¢36d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?59.0¢76d ago
SellNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?59.0¢76d ago
SellNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?58.0¢306d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?58.0¢96d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?58.0¢56d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?58.0¢106d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?58.0¢66d ago
BuyYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?43.0¢37d ago
SellYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?43.0¢37d ago
BuyYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?41.8¢377d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?58.0¢307d ago
SellYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?41.0¢77d ago
BuyNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?65.0¢108d ago
BuyYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?35.0¢108d ago
SellNoWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?51.6¢3811d ago
SellYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?50.0¢811d ago
SellYesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?48.0¢1011d ago

Holders

Yes+$46 total · +$5 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Impolite-Mode-$10815Cylindrical-Ale+$22346Required-Portrait+$20178Orderly-Dentist+$11121Grimy-Turnstile+$61150x2ed2…6630-$1687Belated-Glue+$781Ideal-Bread+$740Superior-Olive+$237Imaginary-Supplier-$330
No-$100 total · -$10 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Yellow-Bother-$66707Evil-Row+$59281Known-Use-$35257Nimble-Thermals-$25208Ashamed-Roster-$19158Mountainous-Clarification-$15100Musty-Almanac-$060High-Alarm+$230Shiny-Lie-$319Spiteful-Handholding+$018
PriceSizeTotal
49.0¢53
50.0¢6533
55.0¢2614
62.0¢5031
65.0¢3724
90.0¢3128
94.0¢109
95.0¢2019
99.0¢2019
Spread 98.0¢Mid 50.0¢
1.0¢781
21.0¢30063
22.0¢409
26.0¢12733
27.0¢308
30.0¢196
34.0¢7024
35.0¢3011
36.0¢20072
37.0¢3011
38.0¢52
41.0¢104