Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Restore receives 10%+ first preference votes?

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The percentage of valid first preference votes will be calculated as number of valid first preference votes received by Marlon West divided by the number of total valid first preference votes in the specified election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).