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Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?
W

Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?

Outcomes

Yes0.9%
No99.2%

Market details

Outcomes2
EndsJul 31, 2026
ResolverUMA0x6507…f2A7
Source—
Category
UKeuEuropeIran

Highlights

Volume
$105.5K
24h Volume
$152
Liquidity
$26.1K
Ends
Jul 31, 2026

Price history

0.9¢

About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the territory within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the relevant European country and Iran and credible reporting.

Recent trades

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?0.7¢457h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?0.7¢457h ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?99.3¢309h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?0.7¢309h ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?99.3¢7010h ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?0.7¢7010h ago
SellNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?98.9¢619h ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?98.9¢619h ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.0¢2721d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.0¢501d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.0¢51d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.0¢2181d ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.0¢5001d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.0¢2821d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.0¢1981d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.1¢201d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.4¢3601d ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?98.6¢3221d ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.4¢201d ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.2¢181d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.3¢5,0941d ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?98.7¢3,9691d ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.2¢1,0281d ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.1¢81d ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.1¢301d ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.1¢401d ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.1¢201d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.2¢4001d ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.2¢1001d ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?98.8¢3001d ago
SellYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.0¢1021d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.0¢1021d ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?98.9¢631d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.1¢631d ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?98.9¢11d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.1¢11d ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?98.9¢361d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.1¢361d ago
BuyNoWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?98.7¢3,5621d ago
BuyYesWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?1.3¢2,5341d ago

Holders

Yes-$608 total · -$61 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Recent-Relationship-$1678,357Used-Id-$597,222Unfit-Coleslaw-$1033,346Adored-Borrowing-$782,632Ringed-Gambling-$822,128Major-Moat-$341,916Raw-Cross-$521,500Fake-Guard-$51,069Peppery-Capital-$16762Flamboyant-Warming-$14745
No+$506 total · +$51 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Downright-Website+$1105,310Small-Pompom+$524,858Grounded-Depression+$183,969Equatorial-Textual+$1203,596Attached-Pump+$173,562Pointed-Jalapeño+$432,000Quick-Cardboard+$261,968Burdensome-Kielbasa+$251,700Each-Registration+$711,316Tinted-Morbidity+$251,034
PriceSizeTotal
94.0¢8,0007,520
94.9¢10,0009,490
95.0¢40,71038,675
97.8¢77
97.9¢1,000979
98.0¢30,00029,400
99.0¢55
99.3¢99
99.4¢50,00049,700
99.5¢30,00029,850
99.8¢1717
99.9¢4,1754,170
Spread 99.8¢Mid 50.0¢
0.1¢23,21223
0.2¢3,5507
0.3¢1,4004
0.4¢3,59614
0.5¢1,8459
0.6¢2,43115
0.7¢2532