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Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

Outcomes

Yes32.5%
No67.5%

Market details

Outcomes2
EndsJan 1, 2027
ResolverUMA0x6507…f2A7
Source—
Category
HawaiiWeatherclimatehurricane

Highlights

Volume
$74
24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$97
Ends
Jan 1, 2027

Price history

32.5¢

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. "Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument). The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs. This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.

Recent trades

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyNoWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?88.0¢52d ago
BuyYesWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?12.0¢52d ago
BuyNoWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?87.0¢12d ago
BuyYesWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?13.0¢12d ago
BuyYesWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?72.0¢32d ago
BuyNoWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?28.0¢32d ago
BuyYesWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?25.0¢202d ago
BuyNoWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?75.0¢152d ago
BuyNoWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?75.0¢52d ago
BuyYesWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?26.0¢52d ago
BuyNoWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?74.0¢52d ago
SellYesWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?17.0¢202d ago
BuyYesWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?17.0¢202d ago
BuyYesWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?7.0¢203d ago
BuyNoWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?93.0¢203d ago

Holders

Yes+$5 total · +$1 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Murky-Freak+$540Belated-Glue+$110Ornery-Acupuncture-Overload-$13Mortified-Wetland+$01
No-$7 total · -$2 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Velvety-Testament-$2250x2247…4304-$520Forked-Fountain-Quality-$16Exemplary-Decisionmaking+$13
PriceSizeTotal
54.0¢12165
60.0¢53
71.0¢2820
72.0¢22
74.0¢107
92.0¢76
93.0¢8882
95.0¢1010
99.0¢3332
Spread 98.0¢Mid 50.0¢
1.0¢420
3.0¢672
4.0¢211
5.0¢603
6.0¢674
7.0¢262
9.0¢50
10.0¢313
11.0¢465