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Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?
W

Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?

Outcomes

Yes43.5%
No56.5%

Market details

Outcomes2
EndsDec 31, 2026
ResolverUMA0x6507…f2A7
Source—
Category
GeopoliticsUkraine Map

Highlights

Volume
$26.5K
24h Volume
$19.4K
Liquidity
$19.9K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026

Price history

42.5¢

About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Recent trades

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
SellYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?43.0¢948m ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?43.0¢948m ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?44.0¢3453m ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?56.0¢3453m ago
SellYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?45.0¢111h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?45.0¢111h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?57.0¢171h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?43.0¢171h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?49.0¢241h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?51.0¢91h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?51.0¢151h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?56.0¢151h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?44.0¢151h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?56.1¢181h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?43.0¢31h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?44.0¢151h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?56.0¢181h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?44.0¢181h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?56.0¢91h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?44.0¢91h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?56.0¢161h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?44.0¢161h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?53.0¢171h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?47.0¢171h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?53.3¢181h ago
SellNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?54.0¢51h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?47.0¢131h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?53.0¢131h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?47.0¢131h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?53.0¢941h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?47.0¢941h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?53.0¢611h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?47.0¢611h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?53.0¢101h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?47.0¢101h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?53.0¢61h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?47.0¢61h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?53.0¢141h ago
BuyYesWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?47.0¢141h ago
BuyNoWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?53.0¢4341h ago

Holders

Yes-$1.5K total · -$147 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Demanding-Chopsticks-$1.3K20,731Square-Trust-$9826Known-Use-$23653Poor-Sea-$34354Funny-Connotation-$26300Infatuated-Devastation-$32300Utter-Fish-$10137Direct-Chainstay-$455Wild-Muscatel-$4500xdc76…5f55-$034
No+$1.4K total · +$145 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Finished-Wind+$1.1K12,961Frosty-Starboard+$876,164Aged-Drum+$611,065Charming-Grape+$999650xef0d…7e94+$15290High-Alarm+$20272Jealous-Ocelot+$131940xafa7…6e67+$11185Lighthearted-Sick+$18180Considerate-Scenery+$10142
PriceSizeTotal
52.0¢355185
53.0¢523277
54.0¢570308
55.0¢2,5671,412
56.0¢3,7602,106
57.0¢6,3193,602
58.0¢17,73110,284
93.0¢1010
94.0¢1010
95.0¢4745
96.0¢3,0002,880
99.0¢1616
Spread 98.0¢Mid 50.0¢
1.0¢1,26113
2.0¢75015
3.0¢50615
4.0¢1,00040
5.0¢3,200160
6.0¢1,21073
7.0¢72651
8.0¢71
27.0¢257
28.0¢257
29.0¢206
30.0¢206