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Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Outcomes

Yes3.6%
No96.4%

Market details

Outcomes2
EndsDec 31, 2026
ResolverUMA0x6507…f2A7
Source—
Category
CryptoScienceBitcoinquantum

Highlights

Volume
$194.2K
24h Volume
$171
Liquidity
$13.8K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026

Price history

3.6¢

About

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

Recent trades

SideTraderPriceSharesTime
BuyYesWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?3.7¢1372h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢332h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢522h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢522h ago
SellNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢114h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢114h ago
SellNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢114h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢114h ago
SellNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢115h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢115h ago
SellNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢115h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢115h ago
SellNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢115h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢115h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.4¢115h ago
BuyYesWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?3.6¢115h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.4¢115h ago
BuyYesWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?3.6¢115h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.4¢115h ago
BuyYesWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?3.6¢115h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.4¢115h ago
BuyYesWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?3.6¢115h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.4¢115h ago
BuyYesWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?3.6¢115h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.4¢416h ago
BuyYesWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?3.6¢416h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.4¢2016h ago
BuyYesWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?3.6¢2016h ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.4¢21d ago
BuyYesWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?3.6¢21d ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.4¢302d ago
BuyYesWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?3.6¢302d ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.4¢402d ago
BuyYesWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?3.6¢402d ago
SellNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢33d ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.3¢33d ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.4¢53d ago
BuyYesWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?3.6¢53d ago
BuyNoWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?96.4¢43d ago
BuyYesWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?3.6¢43d ago

Holders

Yes-$248 total · -$25 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Harmful-Prevention-$614,218Nervous-Gap-$512,139Mortified-Hyena-$581,746Miserly-Avalanche-$281,514Strong-Departure-$23517Essential-Diarist+$8375Itchy-Mare-$1371Stimulating-Beat-$83410xf092…22db-$16306Dirty-Contrail-$11294
No+$293 total · +$29 avg
Trader · P&LShares
Woeful-Cloudburst+$1566,384Vivacious-Availability+$212,932Decisive-Ejector+$441,0840x8931…a90c+$91,065Adolescent-Boss+$24544Outgoing-Shoulder+$28438Courageous-Analytics-$8345Criminal-Scenario+$12276Acceptable-Whey+$5200Athletic-Rebellion+$2196
PriceSizeTotal
70.0¢666466
80.0¢1,150920
90.0¢2,5002,250
94.9¢66
95.0¢2019
97.0¢2,6672,587
98.8¢2,5142,484
99.4¢1111
99.5¢2,5002,488
99.7¢5,7465,728
99.8¢10,0059,985
99.9¢2,1802,178
Spread 99.8¢Mid 50.0¢
0.1¢24,36924
0.2¢11,36623
0.3¢3361
0.4¢5,00020
0.6¢3,59122
1.0¢1,50015
2.0¢1,00020
2.2¢2766
2.3¢3869
2.6¢381
3.4¢2579
3.6¢733